I'm Going To Krabi, However I'll Buy Thai Bath Later

I'll be going to Krabi from 4-7 January 2009. Usually, the last thing before we go is looking at the exchange rate... Time to buy now... ;) However I had never used any research skill in this. The only "research" skill is to survey between few different currency exchange centre and try to nego the best price.

I was thinking... perhaps can use some "bloomberg" this time. FYI, I am not a currency expert. Thus what I am showing here is purely just based on what info I can get from bloomberg. Its a bit late when i realise that the exchange rate MYR/THB was highest in July 08. However its still good to check now instead, incase anyone cant make it for the trip etc.

Referring to the past trend, MYR depreciated quite a bit from its peak in July 08. Partially due to the new budget announcement in August 2008 which has increased the budget deficit. However looking from the average 1 month moving average standing at 9.799 comparing to the latest spot rate of 9.743. In another word, MYR has depreciated more than the previous month.

You might say, hey it might fall further. Lets quickly buy Thai Bath now....... well yes and no... I am not god. So i don't know. But we can look at experts' forecast here at below's chart.

According to the bloomberg forecast, Thai Bath is expected to reach 10 (current spot 9.743) in the first quarter of 2009. Thus from research point of view. I would think that MYR will strengthen against Thai Bath early of next year. Therefore i will only start to buy when the exchange rate is reaching 10 ( at least 9.799).